NCAA Tournament Predictions

Hello,

I'm sure that if you found this blog that you are aware that online contests are available to win prizes for the most accurate bracket. For some, the top prize requires a perfect bracket.

So sorry to say that this blog does not have another contest to enter, rather it may be a source of information to actually win an online bracket or an office bracket. The odds of completing a perfect bracket are about ZERO point ZERO or .000000000.

That said, let's see what we can do to 1) increase the probability of completing a perfect bracket or better yet 2) increase the probability of winning or placing in the office pool. I think that two different strategies are in order for 1) and 2). You see, in 1) you want a perfect bracket and are competing against actual results, whereas in 2) all you need to do is do better than other people participating in the office pool.

So for example, if someone from your work went to a school like DUKE, chances are that person is dumb enough to pick the devils to go all the way. Knowing this bit of information is important for deciding how deep your bracket has DUKE going in the tournament. I suggest using a blocking technique and picking DUKE going to the Great 8.

Overall, one should consider their predictions by solving BACKWARDS or what is called backwards induction. In other words, complete the bracket by first choosing the CHAMPION.

Based on oddsmakers the teams with top odds to win it all are Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Kentucky (3-1), Duke (7-1), Ohio State (12-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)

Consider matchups between these teams. Which team matches up best against the other? Frankly I do not know because, in full disclosure, I have not watched a complete basketball game this year. I think Ohio State matches up well against all the teams. I think Cuse does not match up well against most of these teams. Kentucky can beat all teams, except Kansas and maybe Ohio State.

So, my bracket will either have Kentucky or Ohio State winning it all. Depending on which region teams are placed, these two teams may be my final teams. Most likely these teams will be two of my final four teams. So that is about 11 of the 63 games.

The other two final four slots cannot be determined yet because seedings and regions have yet to be decided, but out of the remaining teams [Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Duke (7-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)] I think that Kansas has the best shot at making the final four. As far as the last team to make the final four, it really depends on seedings but either one of the teams listed above or Maryland or Wisconsin will make the final four this year. I see no seed lower than #4 making it to the final four.

Buck