Historical Data -

For a great source on historical data of win-loss by seedings (and only the basic information is free) see http://bracketscience.com/bracketmaster.asp

Based on a review of the data, on average you should pick ZERO 12 seeds or lower to reach the sweet 16 and in fact ZERO 12 seeds or lower to win a first round game.

Consider a #11 team to goto the sweet 16, but ONLY one and only if the team has a quantifiable reason (i.e. George Mason 2006 with 5 seniors who basically started all 4 years together)

Consider a #10 team (2008 Davidson with Stephen Curry anyone?)

Building a square bracket to block other entrants with a few educated tweaks here and there.

Last thought of the night: Teams I like that are underrated--Clemson, Xavier, Witcha State (watch out K-state), and Kent State.