Champion: Kansas
Runner up: ???? 1 in 3 shot -- go with Kentucy
Final Four: Kansas, Kansas St., Kentucky, and Duke (or Baylor)
Big East does ok, but no team will make it to the final four.
Great Eight: Ohio State, Cuse, West VA, Duke (or Baylor)
First Round: Minn, Fl St., Louisville, and the rest a square bracket.
(don't be fooled into picking Siena)
Second Round: Mich State, Texas A&M, and teh rest a square bracket.
That's all my picks
Monday, March 15, 2010
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Analysis - tournament upsets
1) Wis loss to Ill (why? key player out)
2) MSU loss to Minn (why? key player out)
3) BYU loss to UNLV (why? key player out)
Teams can rest and get ready for tournament of 64.
4) new Mexico lost to San D. (why? matchup New mex c/n win against big upfront team)
2) MSU loss to Minn (why? key player out)
3) BYU loss to UNLV (why? key player out)
Teams can rest and get ready for tournament of 64.
4) new Mexico lost to San D. (why? matchup New mex c/n win against big upfront team)
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Historical Data -
For a great source on historical data of win-loss by seedings (and only the basic information is free) see http://bracketscience.com/bracketmaster.asp
Based on a review of the data, on average you should pick ZERO 12 seeds or lower to reach the sweet 16 and in fact ZERO 12 seeds or lower to win a first round game.
Consider a #11 team to goto the sweet 16, but ONLY one and only if the team has a quantifiable reason (i.e. George Mason 2006 with 5 seniors who basically started all 4 years together)
Consider a #10 team (2008 Davidson with Stephen Curry anyone?)
Building a square bracket to block other entrants with a few educated tweaks here and there.
Last thought of the night: Teams I like that are underrated--Clemson, Xavier, Witcha State (watch out K-state), and Kent State.
Based on a review of the data, on average you should pick ZERO 12 seeds or lower to reach the sweet 16 and in fact ZERO 12 seeds or lower to win a first round game.
Consider a #11 team to goto the sweet 16, but ONLY one and only if the team has a quantifiable reason (i.e. George Mason 2006 with 5 seniors who basically started all 4 years together)
Consider a #10 team (2008 Davidson with Stephen Curry anyone?)
Building a square bracket to block other entrants with a few educated tweaks here and there.
Last thought of the night: Teams I like that are underrated--Clemson, Xavier, Witcha State (watch out K-state), and Kent State.
NBC Sports1st Place: $2,000Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: Televisions & Blu Ray Players (Up To 10th)Direct Contest Link
ESPN1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: $5,000 CashDirect Contest Link
Bodog Sportsbook1st Place: $5,000Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: N/ADirect Contest Link
USA Today1st Place: $2,500Perfect Bracket Prize: $100,0002nd Place Prizes: $500 (Second) & $250 (Third)Direct Contest Link
Yahoo Sports1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: 1 Million Dollars2nd Place Prizes: NoneDirect Contest Link
Sports Co.1st Place: $500 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: $250 CashDirect Contest Link
Fox Sports1st Place: $10,000Perfect Bracket Prize: $1,000,0002nd Place Prizes: $10K in Other Prizes (Up To 4th Place)Direct Contest Link
Bet US Sportsbook1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: 5 Million2nd Place Prizes: $10K First Prize for (2) Second Chance BracketsDirect Contest Link
The Sporting News1st Place: $2,500Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: Signed Keving Garnett Jersey (And Others)Official Contest Link Posted on Sunday
Swisher Cigars1st Place: Home Theater SystemPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: Netbook ComputerDirect Contest Link
Boston.com1st Place: Team Wrist WatchPerfect Bracket Prize: 1 Million (Multiple Sites)2nd Place Prizes: Multiple Prizes (Great Contest)Direct Contest Link
CBS Sportsline (Poor Contest)1st Place: 2011 M Infiniti(Random Drawing From Top 10%…Scam Alert!)Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: NoneDirect Contest Link
ESPN1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: $5,000 CashDirect Contest Link
Bodog Sportsbook1st Place: $5,000Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: N/ADirect Contest Link
USA Today1st Place: $2,500Perfect Bracket Prize: $100,0002nd Place Prizes: $500 (Second) & $250 (Third)Direct Contest Link
Yahoo Sports1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: 1 Million Dollars2nd Place Prizes: NoneDirect Contest Link
Sports Co.1st Place: $500 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: $250 CashDirect Contest Link
Fox Sports1st Place: $10,000Perfect Bracket Prize: $1,000,0002nd Place Prizes: $10K in Other Prizes (Up To 4th Place)Direct Contest Link
Bet US Sportsbook1st Place: $10,000 CashPerfect Bracket Prize: 5 Million2nd Place Prizes: $10K First Prize for (2) Second Chance BracketsDirect Contest Link
The Sporting News1st Place: $2,500Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: Signed Keving Garnett Jersey (And Others)Official Contest Link Posted on Sunday
Swisher Cigars1st Place: Home Theater SystemPerfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: Netbook ComputerDirect Contest Link
Boston.com1st Place: Team Wrist WatchPerfect Bracket Prize: 1 Million (Multiple Sites)2nd Place Prizes: Multiple Prizes (Great Contest)Direct Contest Link
CBS Sportsline (Poor Contest)1st Place: 2011 M Infiniti(Random Drawing From Top 10%…Scam Alert!)Perfect Bracket Prize: None2nd Place Prizes: NoneDirect Contest Link
Backwards Bracket - Assistance for sweet 16 and 1st round
Hello,
Remember to fill your bracket BACKWARDS. Not trying to win 100%, but block other entrants and have one out of the ordinary pick.
Champ: Ohio State
Runnerup: Kentucky
Final Four: Kanas, West VA
Great 8: Wisconsin, Maryland, Duke, Pitt
A request, however. Traditionally, there are a few "upsets" in the 1st round. These are typically due to some quantifiable factor [uder the radar teams have 1) senior guards 2) NCAA 1st round prospects 3) high FT percentage 4) injuries early in season...]
Remember to fill your bracket BACKWARDS. Not trying to win 100%, but block other entrants and have one out of the ordinary pick.
Champ: Ohio State
Runnerup: Kentucky
Final Four: Kanas, West VA
Great 8: Wisconsin, Maryland, Duke, Pitt
It would be futile to continue and complete the Sweet 16 because the way to identify the winner is to look at the paticular matchup. I actually did my own mock seedings, but I'll spare you all from it.
A request, however. Traditionally, there are a few "upsets" in the 1st round. These are typically due to some quantifiable factor [uder the radar teams have 1) senior guards 2) NCAA 1st round prospects 3) high FT percentage 4) injuries early in season...]
NCAA Tournament Predictions
Hello,
I'm sure that if you found this blog that you are aware that online contests are available to win prizes for the most accurate bracket. For some, the top prize requires a perfect bracket.
So sorry to say that this blog does not have another contest to enter, rather it may be a source of information to actually win an online bracket or an office bracket. The odds of completing a perfect bracket are about ZERO point ZERO or .000000000.
That said, let's see what we can do to 1) increase the probability of completing a perfect bracket or better yet 2) increase the probability of winning or placing in the office pool. I think that two different strategies are in order for 1) and 2). You see, in 1) you want a perfect bracket and are competing against actual results, whereas in 2) all you need to do is do better than other people participating in the office pool.
So for example, if someone from your work went to a school like DUKE, chances are that person is dumb enough to pick the devils to go all the way. Knowing this bit of information is important for deciding how deep your bracket has DUKE going in the tournament. I suggest using a blocking technique and picking DUKE going to the Great 8.
Overall, one should consider their predictions by solving BACKWARDS or what is called backwards induction. In other words, complete the bracket by first choosing the CHAMPION.
Based on oddsmakers the teams with top odds to win it all are Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Kentucky (3-1), Duke (7-1), Ohio State (12-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)
Consider matchups between these teams. Which team matches up best against the other? Frankly I do not know because, in full disclosure, I have not watched a complete basketball game this year. I think Ohio State matches up well against all the teams. I think Cuse does not match up well against most of these teams. Kentucky can beat all teams, except Kansas and maybe Ohio State.
So, my bracket will either have Kentucky or Ohio State winning it all. Depending on which region teams are placed, these two teams may be my final teams. Most likely these teams will be two of my final four teams. So that is about 11 of the 63 games.
The other two final four slots cannot be determined yet because seedings and regions have yet to be decided, but out of the remaining teams [Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Duke (7-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)] I think that Kansas has the best shot at making the final four. As far as the last team to make the final four, it really depends on seedings but either one of the teams listed above or Maryland or Wisconsin will make the final four this year. I see no seed lower than #4 making it to the final four.
Buck
I'm sure that if you found this blog that you are aware that online contests are available to win prizes for the most accurate bracket. For some, the top prize requires a perfect bracket.
So sorry to say that this blog does not have another contest to enter, rather it may be a source of information to actually win an online bracket or an office bracket. The odds of completing a perfect bracket are about ZERO point ZERO or .000000000.
That said, let's see what we can do to 1) increase the probability of completing a perfect bracket or better yet 2) increase the probability of winning or placing in the office pool. I think that two different strategies are in order for 1) and 2). You see, in 1) you want a perfect bracket and are competing against actual results, whereas in 2) all you need to do is do better than other people participating in the office pool.
So for example, if someone from your work went to a school like DUKE, chances are that person is dumb enough to pick the devils to go all the way. Knowing this bit of information is important for deciding how deep your bracket has DUKE going in the tournament. I suggest using a blocking technique and picking DUKE going to the Great 8.
Overall, one should consider their predictions by solving BACKWARDS or what is called backwards induction. In other words, complete the bracket by first choosing the CHAMPION.
Based on oddsmakers the teams with top odds to win it all are Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Kentucky (3-1), Duke (7-1), Ohio State (12-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)
Consider matchups between these teams. Which team matches up best against the other? Frankly I do not know because, in full disclosure, I have not watched a complete basketball game this year. I think Ohio State matches up well against all the teams. I think Cuse does not match up well against most of these teams. Kentucky can beat all teams, except Kansas and maybe Ohio State.
So, my bracket will either have Kentucky or Ohio State winning it all. Depending on which region teams are placed, these two teams may be my final teams. Most likely these teams will be two of my final four teams. So that is about 11 of the 63 games.
The other two final four slots cannot be determined yet because seedings and regions have yet to be decided, but out of the remaining teams [Kansas st. (10-1), Kansas (2-1), Syracuse (3-1), Duke (7-1), Michigan State (15-1), and Villanova (12-1)] I think that Kansas has the best shot at making the final four. As far as the last team to make the final four, it really depends on seedings but either one of the teams listed above or Maryland or Wisconsin will make the final four this year. I see no seed lower than #4 making it to the final four.
Buck
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